Overconfidence
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Overconfidence
We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one’s performance, (2) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one’s belief about private signals. We show how a simple Bayesian model with uncertainty about task difficulty predicts overplacement and underestimation after unexpectedly easy tasks and underplacement and overestimatio...
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This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one’s actual performance, (2) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others, and (3) excessive precision in one’s beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first two (apparent underconfidence), when they occur, tend to be on ...
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This article presents the growing research area of Behavioural Corporate Finance in the context of one specific example: distortions in corporate investment due to CEO overconfidence. We first review the relevant psychology and experimental evidence on overconfidence. We then summarise the results of Malmendier and Tate (2005a) on the impact of overconfidence on corporate investment. We present...
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Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overcon dent in the sense that they overestimate the accuracy of their private information. In this paper we show that risk-averse principals might prefer overcon dent agents in various strategic interactions because these agents help diversify the aggregate risk. This may help understanding why successful analysts and entrepreneurs tend to ...
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People self-assess their relative ability when making career choices. Thus, confidence in their own abilities is likely an important factor for selection into various career paths. In a sample of 711 first-year students we examine whether there are systematic differences in confidence levels across fields of study. We find that our experimental confidence measures significantly vary between fie...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: New England Journal of Entrepreneurship
سال: 2020
ISSN: 2574-8904
DOI: 10.1108/neje-07-2019-0031